By midday, strong heating will result in moderate buoyancy developing to the east of a dryline/Pacific front. Scattered discrete thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the surface low southward along the boundary and move to the northeast within a destabilizing airmass and strengthening low-level shear. Forecast hodographs indicate long-track, discrete supercells are probable given the intense shear coupled with moderate instability. The severe threat will likely peak during the afternoon and persist into the early evening. It appears the tornado risk will focus in the warm sector to the southeast of then surface low, especially with supercells interacting with vorticity rich low levels near the warm front. Large to giant hail is possible with either left or right-splitting supercells.


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