Guest “where have I heard this before?” by David Middleton

Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns
How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates.

By Madeline Osburn
MARCH 25, 2020

As U.S. state and local officials halt the economy and quarantine their communities over the Wuhan virus crisis, one would hope our leaders were making such major decisions based on well-sourced data and statistical analysis. That is not the case.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”

An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

When Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced a shelter-in-place order on Dallas County Sunday, he displayed COVID Act Now graphs with predictive outcomes after three months if certain drastic measures are taken. 

[…]

The Federalist

The article features a photo of Fire Marshal Gump referring to a COVID Act Now graph.

Dallas County Commissioner Judge Clay (Fire Marshal Gump) Jenkins babbling incoherently.

He does this every day while complaining that the State of Texas isn’t locking down the economy enough, while nearly losing a federally provided temporary hospital by failing to confirm that the county would use it.

Fire Marshal Gump has even managed to p!$$ off fellow liberal Democrat John Wiley Price.

The Federalist article goes on to tally up the accuracy of these models.

COVID Act Now predicted that by March 19 the state of Tennessee could expect 190 hospitalizations of patients with confirmed Wuhan virus. By March 19, they only had 15 patients hospitalized.

In New York, Covid Act Now claimed nearly 5,400 New Yorkers would’ve been hospitalized by March 19. The actual number of hospitalizations is around 750. The site also claimed nearly 13,000 New York hospitalizations by March 23. The actual number was around 2,500.

[…]

The Federalist

As of yesterday at 5:00 PM New York had 15,333 people hospitalized with ChiCom-19, and they think they are close to the peak. The COVID Act Now model has New York at nearly 39,000 hospitalizations by tomorrow…

COVID Act Now. Click for larger image.

The model has Texas at around 2,300 hospitalizations by April 8. As of yesterday, the number stood at 1,153.

Texas Health and Human Services. Click for larger image.

COVID Act Now might as well be the IPCC…

In Georgia, COVID Act Now predicted 688 hospitalizations by March 23. By that date, they had around 800 confirmed cases in the whole state, and fewer than 300 hospitalized.

In Florida, Covid Act Now predicted that by March 19, the state would face 400 hospitalizations. On March 19, Gov. Ron DeSantis said 90 people in Florida had been hospitalized.

COVID Act Now’s models in other states, including Oklahoma and Virginia, were also far off in their predictions. Jordan Schachtel, a national security writer, said COVID Act Now’s modeling comes from one team based at Imperial College London that is not only highly scrutinized, but has a track record of bad predictions.

[…]

So why is the organization or seemingly innocent online mapping tool using inaccurate algorithms to scaremonger leaders into tanking the economy? Politics, of course.

Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump. The game’s website is now defunct.

Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.”

[…]

Madeline Osburn is a staff editor at the Federalist and the producer of The Federalist Radio Hour. 

Follow her on Twitter.

Photo NBC Dallas

The Federalist

Does this sound familiar? Juice up models for purpose of killing capitalism in the name of saving [fill in the blank] from [fill in the blank]. The COVID Act Now models are basically 2-3 times worse than reality and designed by left-wing Democrats to enable other left-wing Democrats to destroy our economy… Very GISS/IPCC’ish.

Day 22 of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19

As of noon today…

Dallas County CHICOM-19
Population Cases Deaths
2,637,772 1,261 19
% of population with 0.0478% 0.00072%
% wth, rounded 0.0% 0.00%
% without 99.9522% 99.9993%
% without, rounded 100.0% 100.00%

The number of cases should top the Dean Wormer line by tomorrow.

In other good news…

OPEC And Partners Eye A 3-Month Output Cut
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Apr 07, 2020

Countries part of the OPEC+ group are discussing the idea to implement oil production cuts for at least three months from May to July, Russian news agency TASS reported on Tuesday, citing two sources at OPEC.

[…]

The leaders of the OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia for OPEC and Russia for non-OPEC, are reportedly ready to negotiate a massive global production cut amid sinking demand, despite a bitter weekend spat between the former allies about who ditched whom in the OPEC+ talks.  

A video meeting between Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other major oil producers, including representatives from the U.S., was slated to be held on Monday. However, the meeting was postponed for Thursday after the Saudis and the Russians accused each other of dumping the other in the OPEC+ alliance that had tried to manage oil supply and oil prices for the past three years.

Both producers are now signaling that they are ready to talk but are pointing out that any massive cut, 10 million bpd-15 million bpd, as touted by U.S. President Donald Trump, should involve the United States, too.

OPEC hasn’t asked President Trump to find a way to ask U.S. oil companies to collectively cut production, the President said on Monday.  

“I think it’s happening automatically but nobody’s asked me that question yet so we’ll see what happens,” President Trump said at a press briefing, referring to U.S. oil production. 

[…]

Oil Price Dot Com

Yes, Mr. President, a few months of $20-30/bbl oil prices will cut U.S. oil production.  Even ExxonMobil has slashed their capital budget…

ExxonMobil cuts 2020 capex budget by 30% as it works to combat low oil price, weaker demand

Published: April 7, 2020 at 7:18 a.m. ET
By Ciara Linnane

Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, 3.126% said Tuesday it is reducing its 2020 capex budget by 30% and lowering cash operating expenses by 30% as it works to combat the effect of lower commodity prices due to oversupply and demand weakness caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The oil giant said capital investments will fall to about $23 billion from a previously announced $33 billion. “Our objective is to continue investing in industry-advantaged projects to create value, preserve cash for the dividend and make appropriate and prudent use of our balance sheet,” Chief Executive Darren Woods said in a statement. The bulk of the capital spending reduction will take place in the Permian Basin in Texas, reducing the pace of drilling and well completions. Deepwater discoveries offshore Guyana will not be affected…

[…] 

Market Watch

So… With all this drop in oil consumption, atmospheric carbon dioxide must be taking a nose dive…

Or not… NOAA/ESRL




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